Remember last fall when we checked in with FiveThirtyEight.com every day to make sure things were still all good after our nightly President Palin panic attack dreams? Then remember last November when he pretty much predicted the final Electoral College numbers? Well it’s no longer an election year so Silver has to return to his first love, baseball, and his 2009 projections show the Mariners in last place in what looks to be a very poor division. more ›

The stats geeks at Deconstructing Sundance aim to be the FiveThirtyEight of the film festival world by predicting the future box office success of Sundance films, using the words in their festival guide descriptions (and a Bayesian algorithm) alone. Example: 62% of Sundance competition films in the last 15 years whose descriptions included the words "gay," "gays," or "homosexual" went on to commercial success. So "gay" becomes a positive indicator of success, and so on and so forth. more ›

As the Slog pointed out yesterday, giant baseball nerd (God bless those of us that are left) Nate Silver uses some sort of math (snore) to project what he claims is non-biased polling data. more ›