Sunday Politics Rundown: On Gregoire, Inslee, Reichert, Rossi, McKenna, etc.
Is a country still reeling from the 2010 elections ready to dive back in to politics yet? No time to think about it, there's new polling data for 2012!
Public Policy Polling spent last week gauging a series of hypothetical Washington State political match-ups. First up was the volatile governor's race. Washingtonians never warmed to Governor Gregoire, and her handling of the State's budget crisis has only worsened that trend. Public Policy Polling (PPP) found her trailing Republican Attorney General (and all but certain gubernatorial candidate) Rob McKenna by a significant 40%-49% margin. She fared better against Rep. Dave Reichert, edging the Congressman 45-41. These are frightening numbers for an incumbent to be looking at this far off from the election, and will certainly give ammunition to those in the Democratic Party hoping that Gregoire will step aside and let a less damaged candidate take the lead. Many hope that that less-damaged man will be Congressman Jay Inslee. PPP also tested Inslee's chances against the same two Republicans: by their reckoning he is slightly behind McKenna 38-40, and barely beating Reichert 42-36. Obviously, large portions of Washington voters have yet to make up their minds about Jay Inslee, including Democratic voters, 23% of whom were still undecided on him.
State Dems can breathe easier on the Senate side. Maria Cantwell's term will be up in 2012, and by all accounts, she will be seeking another. PPP polled Senator Cantwell against any Washington Republican who conceivably has the chops to challenge her: Rep. Dave Reichert, Rep. Cathy McMorris Rodgers, Tea Party darling Clint Didier, former King County Exec candidate Susan Hutchison, and perpetually failed candidate Dino Rossi. Unfortunately for the Republicans, the only name that broke 40% was Dino Rossi, who seems to have finally gotten the message that Washingtonians do not want him in higher office and is not inclined to ask again.
Elsewhere in politics, Ohio Representative Dennis Kucinich's Napoleonic run at Washington's 1st Congressional District may have hit a snag before it has even officially begun. It looks increasingly likely that Kucinich will try to fill Jay Inslee's shoes as Inslee leaves the House to run for governor, and Kucinich's own district is butchered beyond electability by redistricting. It would've been perfect - except, unfortunately for Kucinich, someone actually from the First District is also interested in representing it. The meddling kid Marko Liias is a veteran of the Mukilteo City Council and the Washington State House. He's formed an exploratory committee, but he's blunt in explaining that he won't run for the seat unless Inslee vacates it.
The bottom line is: it's still early! But we can already tell: any drama in 2012 is likely to come from the race for Governor rather than Senate. Unless things change drastically, it's also likely to be a familiar cast of characters. Finally, it is with much trepidation that I say: the Governor's race could be a close one.
