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We just got a statement from Senator Ed Murray on the R-71 signature count. It's like a word problem out of a stem-winder algebra book. Man, we'll be happy when politics is all done by computer. Says Murray--wait, got a pencil and paper handy? You'll need it:
The current rate of invalid signatures reported by the Secretary of State’s office in the R-71 signature count gives me great hope that the referendum won’t make the ballot. However, there’s a bit of confusion out there about how the count is trending because of an inconsistency in the math used to report the rate.The Secretary of State’s blog first reported that the error rate had to stay under 14.2 percent for the referendum to qualify - referred to as ‘the cushion.’
That cushion was derived by dividing the number of signatures turned in (137,689) by the number needed to qualify (120,577) and subtracting 1.
With the cumulative invalid rate of 13.3 percent as of Wednesday, many have been led to believe that the referendum supporters are within their cushion.
This is wrong.
That’s because in its subsequent reporting of the daily signature check, the Secretary of State’s blog reversed its math, dividing the number of signatures verified by the number examined.
It’s confusing when one method is used to determine the overall rates and the opposite method is used in the daily reports.
If the Secretary of State’s blog had first used the math that it is using now, it would have divided the total they need to verify (120,577) by the total number they will count (137,689) --and, again, subtracted 1 -- for a maximum invalid rate of 12.4 percent.
Or, if the Secretary of State’s blog were still using the math it began with, the current error rate would be 15.4 percent, rather than 13.3 percent.
We know that 15.4 percent is higher than 14.2 percent, and 13.3 percent is higher than 12.4 percent.
Either way, when consistent methods are used, the current rate of invalid signatures clearly suggests that R-71 won’t make the ballot.
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I think it's when politics and bigotry collide that you get all this confusing math.
I can handle the math. And I could figure out that the Sec State's initial math was wrong, or at least the wrong math for the question asked.
But I think the focus on the ratio is way too much trouble for what it's worth. The error rate is circumstantial to this particular petition. Any other statewide petition would need a different error rate depending on how many signatures were turned in. But no matter what, the *total number of valid signatures needed* would be the same. We should be focusing on that instead.
Besides, it's not like we can do anything at this point (at least not until the count is over and IF that count meets the threshold). Just like how we will glue ourselves to the TV watching election returns after the polls close, for some reason we enjoy the helpless, nail-biting part of politics the most.
Really, what we should be doing is ignoring it and preparing to unleash Stage 2 if it does make it.