Is Drafting Sanchez a Dirty Move?
With the NFL Draft taking place tomorrow Seattlest Seth and David sat down with the Seahawk broadcast team of Jason McDonald and Dusty Warren to discuss what the team should do with the fourth pick.
Dusty: Many of the latest mock drafts have us taking Mark Sanchez.
David: Hasselbeck learned under Favre, so he’s ready to be thrown out.
Seth: This is such a nightmare--anyone remember the last time we pushed out a perfectly serviceable 33-year-old quarterback? Guy named Krieg? Then the team went completely in the shitter?
David: Hasselbeck will be 34 on September 25.
Dusty: Never forget.
Seth: And Krieg played seven more seasons.
David: That's kind of my feeling. Hasselebeck is a good QB. I say you hold on to that card for as long as you can. If you draft Sanchez then you get an Aaron Rogers/Brett Favre situation. The team panics and, right or wrong, feels that it has to go young.
Jason: Also, I haven't seen any evidence that NFL GMs can assess pro potential in a QB well enough to use a top five pick on one.
David: Besides Manning is there any other top five, or even ten, QB who you would want as a starter?
Seth: Here's the list of all QBs drafted in the top ten since 1990.
David: Of those 26 I would take: Ryan, Rivers, Palmer, Vick, McNabb, McNair, Collins, Dilfer, Bledsoe, and the Mannings.
Dusty: Dog-hater.
Seth: I don't think QBs are any more of a crapshoot than any other position. The problem is that if you end up with a bust, he can fuck your franchise over for five years.
David: Ladies and gentleman, your San Francisco 49ers.
Jason: Prove it, Seth. Show me a breakdown of the 50 players taken with a top five pick in the last ten years, grouped by position, with how they've performed so far.
Seth: How would you assess "how they've performed"? Starts? Pro Bowls?
Jason: How about starts/season.
Seth: They have a stat called "number of years as a primary starter"...guess we'll use that.
Dusty: Thing is, with top ten picks, there’s pressure to start them when maybe you shouldn’t, so I’m not sure how entirely accurate that will be, either. I don’t know. I just hope we draft Tom Brady.
Seth: Well, here are those stats, if you care...
This is the percentage of seasons that top 5 picks in past 10 drafts spent as starters, from 1999-2008.
DB (3) -- 88%
DE (6) -- 80%
DT (3) -- 93%
LB (2) -- 67%
QB (13) -- 59%
RB (9) -- 75%
T (8) -- 89%
WR (6) -- 62%
It would seem that the pattern is pretty obvious--skill players are far less sure bets than any other position.
David: Matt Millen calls bullshit.
Jason: If the point is to make your team a whole lot better, it looks like drafting a QB late is just as effective as drafting one early.
Here's a list of the completions leaders for the past 20 seasons.
2008: Drew Brees (Age29) 413 (Completions) SD 32 (team & Draft Position)
2007: Drew Brees (28) 442 SD 32
2006: Jon Kitna (34) 372DET Undrafted
2005: Brett Favre (36) 372 GNB 33
2004: Daunte Culpepper (27) 379 MIN 11
2003: Peyton Manning (27) 379 IND 1
2002: Rich Gannon (37) 418 OAK 98
2000: Kurt Warner (30) 375 STL Undrafted
2000: Peyton Manning (24) 357 IND 1
1999: Steve Beuerlein (34) 343 CAR 110
1998: Brett Favre (29) 347 GNB 33
1997:Dan Marino (36) 319 MIA2 7
1996: Drew Bledsoe (24) 373 NWE 1
1995: Warren Moon (39) 377 MIN Undrafted
1994: Drew Bledsoe (22) 400 NWE 1
1993: John Elway (33) 348 DEN 1
1992: Dan Marino (31) 330 MI A27
1991: Warren Moon (35) 404 HOU Undrafted
1990: Warren Moon (34) 362 HOU Undrafted
1989: Don Majkowski (25) 353 GNB 255
Dusty: If the Lions pick Stafford then I will be upset if we don’t get either one of the top 2 OTs, Curry or Raji. If we go with Crabtree or Sanchez, I’ll be pretty mad….and hopefully will forgive them five Pro Bowls from now.
Seth: (From a Houston’s Chronicle’s Fan Blog) "Ever feel like your team drafted a bust? The 1946 Redskins blew their first round pick on Cal Rossi, who was ineligible as a junior. The next year, the Redskins again drafted Rossi in the first round, only to find he was not interested in playing professional football."
David: So in 1948 they only spent a third round pick on him.
Dusty: And Jerry Glanville leaves him a ticket at every game.
