Zoo Animals Show Sounders Spirit
Cranberry Saw Us
Seattlest Pix 09Nov06
Can't Miss It, Weekend Edition: Nov 6-8
Fall Flashback
Here is a statement overheard when a local brewer was talking to Ralph Olson, owner of Hopunion (A Yakima located supplier of hops to world-wide brewers), as he was getting off a phone call:
That's just another person trying to get me to shit hops.
Beautiful. Something really has to be up in the world of hops when the man who should have them falling out of every nook and cranny in his house can't get you any.
Nobody likes to discuss these kinds of issues. But, we're going to have to start paying more for our beer and we might as well get used to it now.
The brewing industry is seeing an unprecedented shortage and price increase for malted barley and many types of hops, the two building blocks of beer. This issue has gained quite a bit of press over the last few months, but we haven't really seen much of a change yet. Once prices go up for all our favorite brews, more people will take notice. With the new year just starting up, we'd expect to see higher prices kicking in shortly.
Seattlest is OK with this, and you should be too. Craft breweries just can't absorb these price increases, especially when you add in the increased cost of utilities (doubled over the past 2 years, according to one local brewer). We're more than happy to pay a bit more for each beer we buy; just don't stop making IPAs!!!
Why will our prices go up?
- Craft brewers are looking at increases of anywhere from 200% to 500% for their cost of hops, depending on the brewery and what contracts they have in place. A hop that a brewery paid $3 to $5/lb for last year cost them $15 to $20/lb this year. Breweries have also seen several malt price increases over the past 6 months, and the bad news likely isn't over.
- Not only have hop prices gone up, it's just plain impossible to get certain varieties of hops for some brewers. One local brewery noted that they were not able to get any European hop varieties this year; no Czech Saaz, no Tettnanger...my God. Breweries are stuck trying to sub other varieties of hops to achieve their beer profile in these cases; better have a good Brew Master (thankfully, most NW breweries do).
- Hopunion sold out of their 2007 crop of Amarillo, Simcoe, Centtenial and Czech Saaz in September...that leaves many craft brewers out of luck. Fat chance of getting any of these in 2008 if you are a homebrewer it sounds like.
- Hale's cited a possible increase of .$50 to $1 per six pack; not enough to keep many of us from buying based on high price. Elysian cited a possible increase of $.25/pint at their pubs, hopefully that doesn't break your bank. Pike already raised prices about $1/six pack. These examples don't scare us; but that doesn't mean we won't see more drastic increases.
- Fish Brewing company will not change any of their front line organic brand recipes to any great degree, but their less widely distributed brands will almost certainly change, and their second tier hoppy ales could go away. I'm not sure what qualifies as their second tier hoppy ales, but I'd guess 10(squared) and Leviathan could be at risk.
- At a beer dinner a couple of months ago we asked the Schooner Exact brewer if they had plans to expand. His answer was that they were planning to in 2008, but they just can't afford to in the current market for hops/malt. Sounds like they've put those plans on hold for now.
- Many breweries, such as Big Time, are using their hard earned capital to purchase as much malt under their current price before more increases hit. Some breweries don't have the capital for this luxury and are stuck riding out any increases.
- Swans, a brewpub in Victoria, BC, is the first example we've seen of a brewery ceasing production of a well known IPA and citing the hop shortage as the reason why. We hope that this is not a common theme in 2008, but don't be surprised to see less hop bombs as specialty beers. Don't expect larger craft brewers to stop making their well know hop bombs(like the beer this Seattlest is drinking right now, Stone Ruination). But, you should expect a few less "one off" Imperial IPAs from smaller brewpubs.
- These shortages are caused by a combination of factors. Bad weather affected world-wide harvests 2 years in a row. Less, and less farmers in the US are growing hops; ethanol production is getting farmers to switch from hops/barley to corn. With the increase in craft beer and imports there is larger demand. Put everything together, and you've got a shortage. Check out this link for more detailed info on why this is happening.
- 2008 could just be the beginning. Depending on this year's harvest, further changes could be in order for 2009 and further years.
- Many breweries across the region and nation are pulling together to help each other out. We've heard stories of a brewery borrowing hops from another local brewery, and a mail order company in CO that has a surplus it is rationing out to small craft brewers across the nation. With the close-knit beer community in the NW, we're not surprised to see this.
- Don't expect to see macro beer rise much in price, if at all. They use much less hops per beer than craft brewers, have much more leverage purchasing hops and can absorb these bad times easier than smaller craft brewers.
Hopefully, most WA breweries will be able to ride this out. Brewers will have to adapt to the change in supply, and consumers will have to get used to paying a bit more for the beer they love.Most consumers likely will not bat an eye at the increases. The story will be told over the next 2 years though; we'll see what happens.
Right now, we're going to head out to Snoqualmie Brewing and try that limited Serendipity Imperial IPA they have on tap; it may be one of the few new, big IPAs we see this year.
Photo thanks to bigtimebrewery's Flickr account.
add to stumble upon
add to reddit
tweet this
post to facebook
This may well be the single most informative piece on Seattlest...ever. Props.
As an aside, the Olympic Peninsula City of Forks, Washington, was established to grow hops on the prairie. It was too far inland in those days to be a timber town. I don't know how it worked out but I don't think there is much agriculture in that area any more.
BTW and contrary to rumor, it only rains once a year in Forks. The problem is that it only stops once.