Could the Mariners Contend Next Year?

One commenter greeted our proposition that the Mariners could make the postseason next year so derisively, we were forced to do some extra research just to make sure we weren't going nuts.

So we fired up the old Seattlest Research-o-Matic 8000 and came to this conclusion: Yes, the Mariners, who won 78 games in 2006, could contend next year. There's precedent for it: In nine of the last ten years, a team's reached the postseason that had won less than 78 games the year before. (the full list is after the jump, if you care).

Bolstering our conclusion that the M's could (that's could, not will) contend are the similarities between the 06-07 M's and the 2001-2002 Angels.

The 2001 Angels won 75 games. Coming into 2002, the Angels had only two holdover starters from the year before--Ramon Ortiz and Jarrod Washburn (similarity!).

Their offense in 2001 was anemic (similarity!), scoring only 691 runs (3rd-worst in the league), yet in 2002 they would feature 8 of the guys in the 2001 lineup (similarity!).

Not only that, but they finished 41 games (41 games!) back of the first place M's. Not contending at all must have left a bad taste going into the spring (similarity!).

Yet the 2002 Angels won 99 games and the frickin' World Series.

As for the 2007 M's: Like the 2002 Angels, they have two starters back (Hernandez and Washburn).

Like the 2002 Angels, their previous year's offense was anemic, but they brought the same guys back. The 2006 M's finished 2nd-worst in the league with 756 runs (one run behind K.C.) and their lineup as it stands right now will have 8 of the 9 guys that finished in the lineup last year.

Hmmmm. Keep talking, optimistic nature...So what happened to the Angels? How did they get so good, so fast? And could it happen to the M's?

First, the Angels got substantially better years from Ortiz and Washburn (M's should get a much better year from Hernandez, Washburn--well, we can hope for a Moyer-like resurgence). They got a veteran starter, Aaron Sele, to eat innings and keep the team in a few games. (Sele was actually TERRIBLE, but managed 8 wins anyway, let's hope newly-acquired Ramirez can fill this role). They traded Mo Vaughn for Kevin Appier (trade Richie Sexson and use the money for Barry Zito?) and had a young guy, John Lackey, who'd had a 6.71 ERA in AAA in 2001, come up and pitch down the stretch and eventually win Game 7 of the 2002 World Series (????? PRAY!).

As for the hitting, Garrett Anderson had a career year at 30 (Beltre? Please?), Adam Kennedy and David Eckstein broke out (Lopez and Betancourt), Spiezio and Erstad had slightly better numbers (Ichiro? Kenji?), and Tim Salmon, at 33, had a tremendous year (Ibanez?). One major change was a huge increase in production at the DH spot, with the jettisoning of washed-up Wally Joyner (Carl Everett) and the acquisition of Brad Fullmer (Jose Guillen?) to platoon with Orlando Palmiero (Ben Broussard?)

Sure, the M's will need a lot of luck--as the Angels did--to improve by 24 wins in a season. There's no way we'd bet our life on the Mariners to do it.

But we wouldn't bet our life that they won't do it, either.

Dont give up/cos you have friends
Dont give up/You're not beaten yet
Dont give up/I know you can make it good

UPDATE: This explanation of the Ramirez trade by reimagining of the winter meetings as a frat boy spring break, by Lookout Landing, is very, very funny.