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If you want to read the many reasons why the Rafael Soriano for Horacio Ramirez deal sucks, USS Mariner (humorlessly) and Lookout Landing (hilariously--check the poll) can satisfy you.
We've got a different take.
Yes, Rafael Soriano is a better pitcher than Horacio Ramirez. If he were a stock, or stock, or a stock car, you'd be idiotic to trade him for Ramirez..
But.
The Mariners need starting pitching. Without Ramirez, they have two--TWO--for sure starters in their rotation, one of whom looks like Jack Bauer, but pitches like Jaq Bisset.
They can't make Soriano a starter--with his history of arm trouble, you could destroy the guy's career--so they've got to turn him into a starter via trade. And with the market for starting pitching what it is (1/2 the clubs in baseball have called Gil Meche's agent for chrissakes--that's like 1/2 the clubs in the world calling Doug E. Fresh's agent) you're gonna overpay to get a starter.
And that's what the M's have done--overpaid for a starter. In a vacuum, it's a horrible, awful, stupid, moronic, senseless trade. But in the real world of the 2007 Mariners, it may be the best they can do.
One more thing--Ramirez made only $2.2 million last year. He's eligible for arbitration, but he won't get that big a raise after a crummy year. The M's have a decent starter on the cheap, which may free up money to get Barry Zito. That would give them four actual starters, and a real chance at winning a pennant.
Do we love the trade? No. Does it make sense? Yeah. And--even though he's a worse pitcher--the 2007 Mariners are better off with Horacio Ramirez than with Rafael Soriano.
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Seth I follow your reasoning but it still makes very little sense. You argue that we are trading for a starter because Soriano can't start, citing arm problems. The problem is Ramirez has just as much arm trouble. He hasn't stayed healthy in the last 3 years. The trade breaks down to trading a + arm you are affraid to make into a starter, for a average arm that has proven can't stay healthy as a starter. The central need for the mariners wasn't addressed.
It was sort of an amusing little write up until you inserted the line about 'a real chance to win the pennant'.
Ummmm....no. I say sign Barry Zito, it's not my money. Barry Zito and Horacio Ramirez do not turn this team into a pennant contender.
It will eventually rid us of both Hargrove and Bavasi so it wouldn't be all bad.
the m's already have woods & baek as replacement-level arms, plus random flotsam that can be called up from tacoma for mediocre starts. signing joel pineiro's left-handed equivalent to a free-agent contract might have been derided, but would at least be understandable. giving up soriano was a waste of key trade chip. have you seen what other teams have been giving up for even marginal relievers?!
The Mariners won 78 games last year.
In 9 of the last 10 years, a team made the postseason that won less than 78 games the year before.
Forgot to add a point--the point is, the M's aren't as faraway as you may think.
they're further than you think if woods, baek, and ramirez (and whatever they do with the rule 5 guy) are all in the rotation for much of the season. adding in washburn, hernandez is the only good starter they have. the m's don't have the offense to make up for that.
if they'd held on to soriano, they might have gotten somebody of value in return. bavasi panicked.
In 9 of the last 10 years, a team made the postseason that won less than 78 games the year before.
Not in the AL West. Not in the last 10 years.
And your basic premise here is that while the M's overpaid for starting pitching, they overpaid less than many other teams, thereby making this not such a bad deal. Maybe that's true and maybe it isn't. But judging your team's moves on what other stupid teams are doing isn't a great way to evaluate your team. And either way it's completely undone by the fact that you appear to see this is a move that allows the M's to go after Barry Zito, which is going to result in them... wait for it... overpaying for starting pitching. Hilarious!
Yes in the AL West--in 2001, the Angels won 75 games. In 2002, they won the AL pennant and the World Series. In 2003, those same Angels won 77 games. In 2004, they won the division.
RE my premise--sorry, must not have been clear. My premise isn't that the Mariners overpaid for starting pitching, but so did other teams. If everyone's overpaying, it's not overpaying anymore, it's just the market. Do you overpay for gas? Not really, you pay what everyone else does, though the per gallon cost is absurd by 2001 standards.
It's a tight market for starting pitching, and the M's need three starters. I don't care if they overpay, I just know they have to get three starters somehow. Presumably they have a budget, so getting one pitcher on the cheap (Ramirez) frees up money to get another one on the not cheap.
Here's a Braves fan's scouting report on Ramirez:
"With Horacio, he's obviously been injured alot, which probably affects to a great degree what I'm about to say. When he's confident and actually challenging hitters, he's a solid pitcher. Not a strikeout guy, but he shows sparks of Glavine without the command. When he's not confident, he lobs pitches off the corner consistently, which may not be the worst strategy, but it sure makes for some boring tv. He's a good guy to slot in at 4 or 5, because he can pretty consistently outpitch the other guy for 6-7 innings."
I didn't think your point about 9/10 years extended to all of MLB. I thought you meant 9/10 years a team from the AL west went to the playoffs with fewer than 78 wins, which is so whacked out as a concept I should have picked up that that wasn't you meant. My bad.
If I read it correctly, I think there's a fundamental flaw in your gas analogy. Here's the thing about gas: if you're going to drive a gasoline burning car (rideabikerideabikerideabike), there's no marginally-less expensive substitute on the market, so yeah you get stuck paying ridiculous gas prices. But baseball isn't like that. You can pay Barry Zito $100 million for 5 years if you want, but you don't have to, and you can still come out ahead, even without Barry Zito. And look, I don't want to pick on Zito too bad but let's just use him because he's still on the market. If there were only Barry Zitos out there and everyone had to shop for Barry Zitos, then okay, everyone buys $100 million Barry Zitos. But in real life, there are pitchers out there who might get you fewer wins than Barry Zito, but say they only cost $10 million... well... then you have to figure you can make up the difference in wins between your generic pitcher and Barry Zito by spending the $90 million you didn't spend on BZ on other parts. Like on Adam LaRoche, maybe. Just for speculation. You get what I'm saying? And then you're not stuck with a huge contract.
And, hey, I don't want to harsh on Ramirez before he even gets here, but look:
When he's confident and actually challenging hitters, he's a solid pitcher.
...is what people have been saying about Gil Meche (and/or Joel P) for at least three years now. And you have to add to that his durability problems...
I hear you Will--I just don't think there are any of those $10 million starters out there. I mean Gil Meche got an $11 million average contract. Barry Bonds only got $16 million...so Gil Meche is nearly 70% as valuable as Barry Bonds?? That's how ridiculous the market for starting pitching is.
Agree completely about Ramirez...who knows if he's any good. I know the stats say he's no better than Gil or P, but he hasn't pitched all that much. The M's seem to think he's #3 starter material. Time will tell. I still think they had to do something to get a starter. You can't go into spring with two starters, you just can't.
Much more tomorrow, I promise. Thanks for the great comment.
Sure thing. And yeah, obviously the market is crazy. But what about the rumors of taking on John Thomson for a year, or Tim Hudson, or hell, TAKE ME BILL BAVASI!! I have no pitching experince at any level but I can legitimately say that I'm not Joel Pineiro. I will do the job for $250,000/year and only demand a two year contract.
Based on emotion and pitching appeal/zietgeist, I'm not going to complain too bad if they sign Barry Zito. But on an economic level it doesn't make sense to break the bank for any player, I don't think.
And hey, if you think it's crazy to think that Gil Meche is 70% as valuable as Barry Bonds, I just thought of this way to value Barry Zito: pick an arbitrary (but reasonable) value for how much MORE valuable Barry Zito is than Gil Meche. Is he 3 times as valuable (making him $33 million/year)? 5 times ($55 million/year)? You see where I'm going with this... crazy.
Please stop talking about Zito. He will be in NY. He isn't going to Seattle.
With the gas analogy you are forgetting one big factor. The M's undervalued Soriano. The market for all of pitching is scary not just starters. Look at the Trades that have been made over the last year. So to use the gas analogy the Mariners basically paid with 6 quarters to the dollar to get there man. While I was part of no inside discussions, if the reds are willing to trade Kearns and Lopez for two middle of the road relievers. This was a shortsighted deal.
Yeah, but that Kearns deal was in the middle of last season, when the Reds were desperate for middle relief to try to get in the postseason. You can say the M's should've held on to Soriano and gotten more for him at midseason, but they want to compete this year, and they can't do it without another starter.
Will D, your Zito/Meche analogy terrifies me. I'm hoping Zito will want to stay on the West Coast. Quality of life is the only advantage we have over the Yanks. Hell, that's how we got Olerud.
Ok then I present Middle relief Madness winter 2006.
Chad Bradford......3 yr/$10.5M
Jamie Walker......3 yr/$12M
Justin Speier......4 yr/$18M
Danys Baez......3 yr/$19M
As far as Zito I don't think he will be a Yankee I think he will be a Met.
Yeah, you'd think they could've gotten more for Soriano. But the guy is coming off a pretty serious surgery, and Ramirez may have been the best they could do. I guess they could have limped through the first part of 2006 with only 4 starters and tried to trade Soriano at midseason, but what if he stunk it up? What if he got hurt again? Ramirez doesn't seem to have the upside of Soriano. That's what's frustrating.
Your falling into the same trap.
"I guess they could have limped through the first part of 2006 with only 4 starters
The season doesn't start for 4 1/2 Months. Not a time to panic a make a trade. I am completely confident they could trade Soriano for a AAAA talent at anytime in the next four months.