So Long...Fish

A few weeks back we suggested you might lay off the local salmon, you know keep your mercury levels in check and all that good stuff. However, in even more doomsday-ish news, some marine biologists are concerned that we might not have fish to avoid eating within the next 40 years.

A group of Nova Scotia researchers used data from the Vancouver BC-based Sea Around Us project to analyze almost 500 million records of catch rates from fisheries around the world. And the results are not pretty:

Their calculations showed a precipitous drop in coastal biodiversity over the past 200 years, along with a concomitant decline in water quality and a surge in harmful algal blooms, coastal flooding and fish kills. Analysis of data from large marine ecosystems indicated that 29% of the seafood stocks available in 1950 had already collapsed as of 2003, and the remainder would follow by 2048.

No doubt, you are already imagining the downstream results of such an event, and it goes well beyond no longer getting some screaming good, buttery hamachi at your favorite sushi joint. That's more than one subphyla of the Animal Kingdom (not to mention the most biodiverse...for now), and a huge human industry as well. According to the researchers, habitat restoration, pollution reduction and a slowdown in climate change will be necessary to reversing current trends--for those who acknowledge global climate change but prefer to split hairs over whether it has been caused by humans or not, this is the intersection of their "healthy" skepticism and the fact that if we don't change our human-pollutin' ways, we'll only have ourselves to blame. And no fish to eat.

UPDATE: We figured there would be some interesting responses to this report, and lo and behold we find a UW scientist who does not trust the 2048 date. At least not on a worldwide level, and in fact Dr. Ray Hilborn says it is "just mind-bogglingly stupid." Some areas, like Africa, he argues are at serious risk but the Pacific Northwest and Alaskan coasts are surprisingly healthy in comparison.

No fish by 2048 certainly sounds dire, but is that date indeed spurious? Could scientists be taking a play from the politicians' books and "adjusting" scientific data to sway public opinion? If so, this group belongs in the 8th circle of hell, with other scientific data-fakers, hypocrites, and Ted Haggart. The lead researcher, Dr. Worm, apparently mistakenly sent out an email intended for colleagues that suggests the predicted date could be used as a "news hook to get people's attention." After being pressed on the issue, he maintained that the date is still accurate according to his team's research. Go Fish.

Fishy art courtesy of Ray Troll from Ketchikan, AK.